Beiruts fears of a new civil war. What has the country to expect?

Due to the deathly clashes in Beirut, I am receiving lots of emails and messages from worried Lebanese inside and outside the country. All of them want to know if this is this the beginning of a new war.

January 25, 2021 I published in my annual forecast for Lebanon:

"Building a government and keeping it together will be the same problem it has been in 2020.

On the other side, no open war with another country or within its borders will shake the country. Religious, but not political institutions, will help to avoid any mayor armed conflict.

No war at the border with Israel.

It will not be a good year for Hezbollah and its allies."

From my forecast I can say that for now the conflict wont escalate. Unfortunately, this is only for now. On the horizon I can see looming fires of armed conflicts with heavy violence. But for now, a mayor escalation has been avoided.