Lebanon and the Middle East’s 2015 Destiny
Vision
Lebanon general situation: The first months of 2015 will be stable in the country. In summer political violence has to be expected with many people dying. At the end of 2015 it will again become difficult on a political level. Internal fights among political leaders will create a new wave of problems. For the Christians the year will be a good one. Many fears from 2014 will disappear. From the international community help and support can be expected and will be provided. A person from the Lebanese Army will play a very important roll in the political landscape of 2015. The Army becomes very strong and important in 2015, not as defender against an external enemy but within the national political landscape. Economical situation: The market will keep itself stable. Prices will rise due to more demands for import. For real estate it wont be a very good year, not a good year to sale real estate. For products depending on shipment for import will be good business. It is a good year to think in business, due to the fact that there is no open war in 2015. Violence/conflict: The Sunni/Shia conflict won’t escalate or become worse than 2014. Political leaders will be able to prevent the worse. ISIS extremis will be controlled. The group will not create the same problems for the country they did in Syria or Iraq. The violence the country will be experience is from within the country, not due to war with an other country or trough a direct invasion. Beirut: Security will be stable. There will be blood in the streets but much less than in 2014. Difficult period for Beirut will be in March and July/August. An influential person will be taken down from the political stage but not killed. Mainly the influence from abroad will help to keep Beirut stable. Assassination will be mainly directed towards specific targets/people and not random car bombs. Tripoli: The Government is able take control of the city. Some violence can be expected but never as bad as it was 2014. February will not be a good month for Tripoli, in September there will be new hope for the citys situation. The Bekaa: The valley will face violence and death. Extremists will go on invading the country but the Army will be able to control the situation. Forecast for violence 2015: More stable than 2014, no open sectarian war or no invasion/war with an external country/group. Political development: The political fractions will not be able to bring up a new and long holding President. There will be efforts done to do so but they will not be able to bring stability. Neither March 14 nor March 8 will be able to bring power full on its side. 2015 is not a good year for political alliances. Politicians wont be able to bring real solutions. Hezbollah will still be involved in war abroad but it won’t harm their situation or bring them down in any way. Christians in Lebanon No direct danger for the Christians in the country. There will be disagreement among political leaders but no direct danger for the Christians in the streets. Syria Assad will stay in power trough the year. He will be possible to make his position even stronger. The war will go on and interventions from abroad will become stronger. A huge explosion will occur. Either caused in an oil refinery or industrial complex blown up. ISIS The group will be able to keep up its position. From ISIS a new group will raise we have not heard from yet. Agreements between ISIS and international players will be made. Israel Ongoing threads between Lebanon and Israel but no open war. Israel and Palestine will go on negotiating. In the second half of the year violence will uprise. Israel will suffer a heavy political earthquake. On a political level the country will go trough extreme challenges and find itself under fire. This will put the politicians under enormous pressure and tension. Turkey No open war on the horizon but disruptions and conflicts. Political decisions will bring changes and cause occasional clashes. Hassan Nasrallah On a personal and emotional level the first period of the year will be difficult for him. Problems will come up in his family life. The second half will be better on a personal level but economical his movement will go trough a difficult time. Internal rupture within the hierarchy will bring difficulties. Towards the end of the year all will become better again and specially the last 2 or 3 months of the year his leadership will experience a strong push, confirming his political position. Saad Hariri The first months of the year will be difficult for him due to challenging confrontation and legal issues. He will find himself under heavy verbal attacks. It will calm down again reaching summer. The second period of the year he will do very good! He will be able to stay in Lebanon and do his political work. Joumblatt He will have a good start, both on a personal and political level. Around summer he will be able to close an important deal on a political level. In the last third of the year he will find himself involved in a mayor problem involving political people very close to him. Aoun 2015 will be very good for him! The first six months will be normal political activities. The second six months will be VERY important to him. In this period he will be able to reach a lot, his position can become very strong. He will find a new position within the political landscape. At the same time this will put him under a lot of tension. In the last months of the year he will find himself confronted with death, either symbolically or by physical death from someone very close to him. Geagea The first period of the year will be difficult for him. He will find himself stocked, nothing really moves the way it is expected. People in his political surrounding and their internal power games will create difficulties. His leadership will be challenged in the summer period. He will have to stand up and show that he still is a strong and powerful leader. He will be able to do so and things will calm down. The second half of the year will be easier and more stable. Towards the end of the year his family will have a special reason to celebrate something important. Amin Gemayel He will start the year with very good News for his personal life. Moving forward the year will unfold itself very good and productive in summer he will win an economical battle and the year for him will end the way it started: Good and positive. Nabih Berry Starting the year he will be in a comfortable position and way. At one point during 2015 he will have to take a very important judgmental political decision. The decision will create a short vacuum in political daily life and then help to resolve obstculos related to economical decisions within political responsibility. Between him and Nasrallah a important decision will be taken. > Article Predictions 2015
Outcome
March 18, 2015
Israel
The early elections created a political earthquake on the political landscape. The country went trough extrem challenges and found itself under fire. Also under fire the country is because the problems with the US government. The politicians are under enormous pressure and tension.
ISIS
The group is making agreements with international players such as Boko Horam in Nigeria.
July 1st, 2015
Israel
July 31, 2015
Israel
Beirut
August 25, 2015
October 18, 2015
Turkey
Conflicts and political complications are creating disruptions and violence. Early elections bring political changes and cause clashes.
July 15, 2016
Turkey
No open war on the horizon but disruptions and conflicts. Political decisions will bring changes and cause occasional clashes: